marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/10/can-artificial-intelligence-forecast-treatment-effects-in-economics.html Can Artificial Intelligence Forecast Treatment Effects in Economics?
Eva Vivalt uses LLMs to forecast treatment effects of 2026 pre-registered studies, covering 673 effects from 33 papers after screening. The best model's median absolute error is 0.054 SD, beating zero-effect and mean-effect benchmarks, suggesting forecasts could inform policy and research.