The article traces economists' influence in U.S. government from the Kennedy and Johnson administrations through Reagan's advisers, then examines why their public standing may be falling. It cites proposed NSF social-science funding cuts, expected enrollment declines, politicization concerns and advances in AI as pressures on the profession.
Linked point-of-sale and payroll records from 20,000 U.S. firms show tip income is a near-constant share of revenue, while firms starting to collect tips offset 23–33 cents per dollar through lower base wages. A calibrated model implies tipping can benefit workers and firms where customers tend to tip.
Global merchandise exports fluctuate sharply rather than changing smoothly, with year-over-year growth roughly between −30% and +45%, far wider than GDP swings. The FRED analysis links these synchronized worldwide cycles to global demand and dollar strength, while noting July 2026 data show growth picking up.
An essay draws on Alexis de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America to examine American restlessness amid prosperity before Election Day. It highlights his arguments that material ambition, mobility and the pursuit of equality can produce anxiety and dissatisfaction even in comfortable conditions.
A Journal of Law, Medicine and Ethics paper examines why one-time gene therapies like Luxturna carry high prices, citing portfolio risk and smaller targeted patient groups as forces shaping incentives. It proposes spreading payments over time, bundling diagnostics with insurance, and streamlining regulation to balance innovation and access.
A staff report using supervisory data from 2000–2023 finds that U.S. bank failures usually follow supervisory closure decisions tied to reported book equity, and that examinations can force loss recognition. It argues stricter supervision lowers resolution costs but may tighten capital and reduce credit supply.
KFF estimates that average premiums in the ACA marketplaces will increase 13 percent next year, based on new federal prices for 2027 in 30 states. The article argues that weaker enforcement of the individual mandate has made the exchanges less stable by discouraging healthier people from enrolling.
France's GDP edged down 0.1% in 2026's third quarter, following a 0.2% contraction in the first and stagnation in the second. The CDCEF says current evidence does not support identifying a recession, citing possible data revisions and a limited cumulative decline.
A new AEJ: Economic Policy paper by Carl Hase and Johannes Kasinger finds cannabis retailers in Washington state raised prices around 1.7–1.8 percent after robberies and burglaries, as did nearby competitors. The authors tie this to crime-related cost shocks and estimate $30.7 million in extra social costs, mostly borne by consumers.
New research in AEJ: Economic Policy by Bowden, Rodriguez, and Weingarten finds that looser academic standards mechanically raise GPAs while reducing effort among lower-ability students. Lower attendance and weaker numerical grades widen high-school engagement and achievement gaps, with lower ACT scores indicating worse human capital accumulation.
FRED is revising its metropolitan statistical area maps to match the Census Bureau's July 2023 delineations. The update drops micropolitan areas, renames 58 MSAs, and adds 12, including three entirely new metropolitan areas and nine upgraded from micropolitan status.
New York Fed researchers evaluated three LinkedIn labor market tightness measures against the JOLTS vacancies-to-unemployment ratio. They found the Jobs per Jobseeker Index delivered the lowest nowcasting and forecasting errors for both CPI and ECI inflation.
Using the Forbes list of 400 wealthy Americans holding $8 trillion as a starting point, the piece examines US wealth-to-GDP trends and Federal Reserve data showing the top 1% rising from 8.6% to about 15% of wealth since 1989. It also weighs wealth taxes against alternatives like ending the stepped-up basis at death and reverting estate tax rules.
A 2019 executive order on organ procurement incentives is estimated to have produced 1,055 to 2,110 extra kidney transplants a year, with sizable life-year and QALY gains through 2040. The End Kidney Deaths Act would add a $50,000 tax credit for living donors and might save Medicare money.
A review of Samuel Gregg's The Civilization of Commerce, which grounds the case for commercial society in virtue, tradition, law and institutions, drawing on Smith, Hayek and the Scottish Enlightenment while contrasting rationalist and romantic critiques of commerce.
Research by Nikhil Rao and James Reeves uses data on nearly seven million defendants from 11 states and seven county reforms to estimate causal effects of misdemeanor conviction. It finds null average effects on criminal and labor market outcomes, harm to young and first-time defendants, and a negative Marginal Value of Public Funds.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported U.S. real GDP rose at a 3.4% annualized rate in Q3, slightly above the 3.1% historical average. AI investment contributed, though imports limited its net effect, residential investment stayed weak, and inventories drove the improvement.
Eva Vivalt uses LLMs to forecast treatment effects of 2026 pre-registered studies, covering 673 effects from 33 papers after screening. The best model's median absolute error is 0.054 SD, beating zero-effect and mean-effect benchmarks, suggesting forecasts could inform policy and research.
The Index of Bureaucracy 2026 covers 27 countries and finds small firms spend an average of 1,638 hours opening, 1,178 hours yearly running, and 3,654 hours closing. It estimates the lost productivity at 16.5% of GDP and proposes reforms such as a "1-in, 2-out" rule and positive administrative silence.
A paper by Tianyu Jiang and Yuqing (Claire) Wang examines how generative AI affects economists' research productivity, using NBER records and a survey of 227 economists. AI narrowed the gap between researchers with and without research assistants but widened the gap between senior and junior researchers.
— via Marginal Revolution, Tyler Cowen
