More sensitive modelling for better economic forecasting

More sensitive modelling for better economic forecasting

7 years ago
Anonymous $hM_jrxqbr-

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-sensitive-economic.html

However, with economies ever-evolving, if the models don't incorporate the ability to reflect these changes, the ensuing policies, while perhaps suitable for the past, may no longer be viable. A large part of the challenge for economic forecasts lies in the difficulty of identifying these changes, the individual triggers which help shape macroeconomics, requiring corrective policies to offset negative consequences.

The EU-funded Post-GFC Monetary Policy project proposed a new methodology which, by incorporating local data, sought a faster reaction to macroeconomic changes than existing methodologies allowed. The project found it bore fruit when taking healthcare pricing as an indicator of policy success but was less applicable to monetary policy, when looking at financial data.