Scientists develop method to predict the spread of armed conflicts

Scientists develop method to predict the spread of armed conflicts

9 months ago
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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/08/230801131641.htm

Some armed conflicts occur between states, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There are, however, many more that take place within the borders of a single state. In Nigeria, violence, particularly from Boko Haram, has escalated in the past few years. In Somalia, populations remain at risk amidst conflict and attacks perpetrated by armed groups, particularly Al-Shabaab.

To address the challenge of understanding how violent events spread, a team at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) created a mathematical method that transforms raw data on armed conflicts into meaningful clusters by detecting causal links.